News

Panel doubts Pentagon's math: Commissioners: Projected savings of base closings don't add up

WASHINGTON (AP) — Members of the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission are expressing concerns about the accuracy of the Pentagon's projected savings from closing bases, including Ellsworth Air Force Base.

According to The New York Times, most of the commissioners say the Defense Department may have overstated the projected savings — estimated at almost $50 billion over 20 years — by nearly 50 percent.

Eight of the nine commission members have ordered their staff to conduct a savings analysis before next week's final votes on the status of recommended base closings, the newspaper said.

A majority of the commissioners said they agree with a July report from the Government Accountability Office, Congress' investigative arm, that concluded that much of the projected savings over the next 20 years would come from cuts in military jobs that simply would be reassigned to other places.

Members of the South Dakota delegation had put forth that argument for saving Ellsworth Air Force Base, saying the Pentagon's projected savings from closing the base could be too high.

BRAC will hold a final round of meetings next week, and commissioners will decide whether to keep Ellsworth and other targeted bases on the Pentagon's list of base closings. The list is then sent to Congress and the president for approval or rejection without any changes to the list.

Rep. Stephanie Herseth, D-S.D., said Monday that the Pentagon analysis "creates a misleading sense of savings."

Sen. Tim Johnson, D-S.D., said, "If we are closing bases to save money, we must be sure the savings aren't based on accounting gimmicks."

Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., said he also has concerns about the Pentagon's figures.

"You have to ask yourself, is it really worth all of the dislocation and havoc caused by closing some of these bases right now?" Thune said.

Thune has sponsored legislation that would delay the process.

Eighty percent of the Pentagon's proposed savings come from 10 percent of the recommendations, the Times said, including from Ellsworth.

But Thune argues that savings from closing the base near Rapid City would have a low rate of return because Ellsworth will be more expensive to close than any other base.

The Pentagon estimates that it will spend $299 million to close the base and will save $1.9 billion from Ellsworth over the next 20 years. That is less savings than is expected from other bases — realigning Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska, for example, is expected to cost $141 million and save the Pentagon $2.8 billion.

If the savings are overstated, Thune said, Ellsworth "becomes even less of a plum" for the Pentagon.

Pentagon spokesman Glenn Flood defended the Department of Defense's analysis.

"We stand by what we said," he told the Times.

The delegation has also argued that consolidating all of the nation's B1-B Lancer bombers could be a threat to security. Under the Pentagon's plan, Ellsworth's 29 planes would join the rest of the fleet at Dyess Air Force Base in Texas.